Airbus projects demand for 39,490 new aircraft in its latest “Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the period 2022-2041, which will double the global fleet to just under 47,000 in 20 years, compared to 2022.
Airbus has released its new “Global Market Forecast” for the period 2022-2041, and the manufacturer expects its global fleet of commercial aircraft to at least double. Airbus estimates a total of 39,490 commercial and cargo aircraft will be needed by 2041.
Airbus reminds that at the beginning of 2020, 22,880 aircraft are in service as a fleet. In 2041, 7,440 will continue to be in service, meaning that 15,440 will need to be replaced. With the increasing demand during the period, 24,050 aircraft will be added to reach 47,000 aircraft.
Forecasts show 80% of orders will be narrow-body aircraft
It is now envisaged that single-aisle aircraft such as the A321LR or XLR can be deployed on long-haul routes, and conversely, dual-aisle aircraft can be deployed on short or medium-haul routes.
Airbus estimates that of the 39,490 aircraft added to the global fleet by 2041, 80%, or 31,620, will be “typically single-aisle” and 7,870 “typically double-aisle”.
Asia-Pacific, the world’s leading region for deliveries
The strongest demand will come from the Asia-Pacific region and China, with 45% of deliveries. By region, the distribution of deliveries is typically 80% for ‘typically single aisle’ and 20% for ‘typically twin aisles’. Airbus expects global passenger traffic demand to grow at an average rate of 3.6%.
The largest traffic flows will be for the Chinese domestic market, followed by the US domestic market, Western Europe-US routes and European domestic traffic. Airbus states that in 2021, only 20% of the world’s fleet consists of new generation aircraft, and this ratio should increase to 95% by 2041.